-Voter Participation -Do We Really Need the Moon? Potential for Concordance between Plurality and Instant-Runoff Election Algorithms as a Function of Ballot Dispersion, The Relationship Between Implicit Preference Between High-Calorie Foods and Dietary Lapse Types in a Behavioral Weight Loss Program. Round 1: We make our first elimination. Ranked choice voting (RCV) also known as instant runoff voting (IRV) improves fairness in elections by allowing voters to rank candidates in order of preference. \hline & 136 & 133 \\ 2. Despite the common objective, electoral algorithms may produce a different winner given the same underlying set of voters and voter preferences. Page 3 of 12 Instant Runoff Voting. \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{M} & & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{G} & \\ If you look over the list of pros above you can see why towns that use IRV tend to have better voter turnout than before they started the IRV. Wanting to jump on the bandwagon, 10 of the voters who had originally voted in the order Brown, Adams, Carter change their vote to favor the presumed winner, changing those votes to Adams, Brown, Carter. \hline & 3 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 2 & 1 \\ \hline As shown in Figure 5, the likelihood of winner concordance approaches one hundred% when one candidate achieves close to a majority of first-choice preferences. \hline 2^{\text {nd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{A} \\ The selection of a winner may depend as much on the choice of algorithm as the will of the voters. Round 2: We make our second elimination. Cambridge has used its own version for municipal elections since 1941, and across the U.S., it will be employed by more than a dozen cities by 2021 . D has now gained a majority, and is declared the winner under IRV. If the latest poll is right, and the referendum on question 5 passes, the state's current electoral system will be scrapped and replaced with a method called ranked-choice voting (RCV). Despite the seemingly drastic results of the data, most of the circumstances in which there would be a low chance of concordance require unusual distributions of voters (e.g., all three candidates must be quite similar in the size of their support). Choice E has the fewest first-place votes, so we remove that choice, shifting everyones options to fill the gaps. In these elections, each ballot contains only a single choice. The first electoral system is plurality voting, also known as first-past-the-post; the second is the runoff system, sometimes called a two-round system; and the third is the ranked choice or the instant runoff. The 214 people who voted for Don have their votes transferred to their second choice, Key. (I have not seen that proposed in the U.S.) This might be interpreted as reducing your choice, or forcing you to vote against yourconscience. There have been relatively few studies that use numerical simulations to test the behavior of election algorithms under different conditions. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{D} \\ \end{array}\). (The general election, to be held in November, will use a standard ballot.) Notice that, in this example, the voters who ranked Montroll first had a variety of second choice candidates. For our analysis, we employ a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation of hypothetical 3 candidate elections. This paper presents only the initial steps on a longer inquiry. If no candidate has more than 50% of the vote, then an "instant runoff" occurrs. \(\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|} \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{M} & \mathrm{M} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{B} \\ Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), also called Plurality with Elimination, is a modification of the plurality method that attempts to address the issue of insincere voting. The choice with the least first-place votes is then eliminated from the election, and any votes for that candidate are redistributed to the voters next choice. \hline & 44 & 14 & 20 & 70 & 22 & 80 & 39 \\ \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} \\ Plurality voting is an electoral process whereby a candidate who gets the most votes in the election wins. This doesnt seem right, and introduces our second fairness criterion: If voters change their votes to increase the preference for a candidate, it should not harm that candidates chances of winning. (1995). in the video it says 9+2+8=18, should 9+2+8=19, so D=19, Mathematics for the Liberal Arts Corequisite, https://youtu.be/C-X-6Lo_xUQ?list=PL1F887D3B8BF7C297, https://youtu.be/BCRaYCU28Ro?list=PL1F887D3B8BF7C297, https://youtu.be/NH78zNXHKUs?list=PL1F887D3B8BF7C297, Determine the winner of an election using the Instant Runoff method, Evaluate the fairnessof an Instant Runoff election. The choice with the least first-place votes is then eliminated from the election, and any votes for that candidate are redistributed to the voters next choice. Still no majority, so we eliminate again. We then shift everyones choices up to fill the gaps. Round 3: We make our third elimination. In a Plurality voting system, each voter is given a ballot from which they must choose one candidate. Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), also called Plurality with Elimination, is a modification of the plurality method that attempts to address the issue of insincere voting. C, Dulled plural pluralities 1 : the state of being plural or numerous 2 a : the greater number or part a plurality of the nations want peace b : the number of votes by which one candidate wins over another c Election by a plurality is the most common method of selecting candidates for public office. Concordance rose from a 57% likelihood in bins where ballots had the highest levels of Shannon entropy to a 100% likelihood of concordance in the boundary case. Voting algorithms do not always elect the same candidate. This continues until a choice has a majority (over 50%). Note that even though the criterion is violated in this particular election, it does not mean that IRV always violates the criterion; just that IRV has the potential to violate the criterion in certain elections. If no candidate has has more than 50% of the votes, a second round of plurality voting occurs with a designated number of the top candidates. Consider the preference schedule below, in which a companys advertising team is voting on five different advertising slogans, called A, B, C, D, and E here for simplicity. What is Choice Voting? Joyner, N. (2019), Utilization of machine learning to simulate the implementation of instant runoff voting, SIAM Undergraduate Research Online, 12, 282-304. \hline Since the number of elections that could be simulated was limited to one million hypothetical elections, there are opportunities to increase the sample size. Under the IRV system, voters still express a first choice, but also rank the other candidates in order of preference in the event that their first-choice candidate is eliminated. It also refers to the party or group with the . Provides an outcome more reflective of the majority of voters than either primaries (get extreme candidates "playing to their base") or run-off elections (far lower turnout for run-off elections, typically). It is new - A certain percentage of people dont like change. \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} & & & \mathrm{D} \\ By Ethan Hollander, Wabash College There are basically three voting systems that are used to elect representatives to public office. This paper addresses only the likelihood of winner concordance when comparing the Plurality and IRV algorithms. Still no majority, so we eliminate again. In a Runo Election, a plurality vote is taken rst. It refers to Ranked Choice Voting when there's more than one winner. Arrowheads Grade 9, 1150L 1, According to the passage, which of the following is NOT a material from which arrowheads were made? This voting method is used in several political elections around the world, including election of members of the Australian House of Representatives, and was used for county positions in Pierce County, Washington until it was eliminated by voters in 2009. The plurality with elimination method requires voters to rank their preferences. Choice A has the fewest first-place votes, so we remove that choice, \(\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|} After transferring votes, we find that Carter will win this election with 51 votes to Adams 49 votes! \hline & 3 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 2 & 1 \\ \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} & & & \mathrm{D} \\ -Plurality Elections or Instant Runoff Voting? This criterion is violated by this election. Given the percentage of each ballot permutation cast, we can calculate the HHI and Shannon entropy: It should be noted that in order to reach certain levels of Shannon entropy and HHI, there must exist a candidate with more than half the votes, which would guarantee the algorithms are concordant. The dispersion, or alternatively the concentration, of the underlying ballot structure can be expressed quantitatively. No se encontraron resultados. The concordance of election results based on the candidate Shannon entropy is shown in figure 3. . Concordance of election results increased as HHI decreased across bins 1 - 26 before leveling off at 100% after bin 26. Round 2: We make our second elimination. Campaign civility under preferential and plurality voting. But security and integrity of our elections will require having a paper trail so that we can do recounts, and know the results are, In the U.S., we have very few requirements for what a person must do to run for office and be on a ballot. We then shift everyones choices up to fill the gaps. By the sixth and final round, the winner beat Santos by about 200 votes and had 51 percent to Santos' 49 percent of the remaining vote. We then shift everyones choices up to fill the gaps. Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) In IRV, voting is done with preference ballots, and a preference schedule is generated. Still no majority, so we eliminate again. Under this algorithm, voters express not only a first choice as in the Plurality algorithm, but an ordered list of preferred candidates (Table 1) which may factor into the determination of a winner. Election officials told lawmakers holding a statewide runoff election would cost the state close to $3 million to administer. Find the winner using IRV. Wanting to jump on the bandwagon, 10 of the voters who had originally voted in the order Brown, Adams, Carter change their vote to favor the presumed winner, changing those votes to Adams, Brown, Carter. \hline 5^{\text {th }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} \\ Prior to beginning the simulation, we identify all possible unique voter preference profiles. CONs of IRV/RCV It is new - A certain percentage of people don't like change. In the following video, we provide the example from above where we find that the IRV method violates the Condorcet Criterion in an election for a city council seat. Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), also called Plurality with Elimination, is a modification of the plurality method that attempts to address the issue of insincere voting. It refers to Ranked Choice Voting when there is only one candidate being elected. All rights reserved. Jason Sorens admits that Instant Runoff Voting has some advantages over our current plurality system. Round 1: We make our first elimination. The HHI of any such situation is: In the situation where only the first-choice preferences are visible, as in the case of Plurality election, the corresponding boundary conditions for HHI(x) and H(x) are still 0.5 and 0.693147, respectively. In a Runo Election, a plurality vote is taken rst. Ornstein and Norman (2013) developed a numerical simulation to assess the frequency of nonmonotonicity in IRV elections, a phenomenon where a candidates support in the ballots and performance can become inversely related. So Key is the winner under the IRV method. \hline Therefore, voters cast ballots that voice their opinions on which candidate should win, and an algorithm determines which candidate wins based on those votes. \hline 2^{\text {nd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} \\ The Promise of IRV. So Key is the winner under the IRV method. Public Choice. The Plurality algorithm is commonly used to convert voter preferences into a declared winner. This study seeks to determine the behavior and rate of change in algorithmic concordance with respect to ballot dispersion for the purpose of understanding the fundamental differences between the Plurality and Instant-Runoff Voting algorithms. Winner =. \end{array}\). Choice A has the fewest first-place votes, so we remove that choice. In many aspects, there is absolutely no empirical or objective precedent to inform the proper implementation of RCV. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Further enhancements to this research would be to (i) study N-candidate elections (rather than only three candidates), (ii) evaluate different methods to produce hypothetical voter preference concentrations, and (iii) perform a comparative analysis on alternative electoral algorithms. \hline 4^{\text {th }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} \\ In an instant runoff election, voters can rank as many candidates as they wish. Here is an overview video that provides the definition of IRV, as well as an example of how to determine the winner of an election using IRV. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{E} \\ \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} \\ Market share inequality, the HHI, and other measures of the firm composition of a market. \end{array}\). McCarthy (M) now has a majority, and is declared the winner. Pro-tip: Write out each of the examples in this section using paper and pencil, trying each of the steps as you go, until you feel you could explain it to another person. Notice that the first and fifth columns have the same preferences now, we can condense those down to one column. The Plurality algorithm is far from the only electoral system. Plurality Multiple-round runoff Instant runoff, also called preferential voting. La pgina solicitada no pudo encontrarse. The 14 voters who listed B as second choice go to Bunney. \hline Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), also called Plurality with Elimination, is a modification of the plurality method that attempts to address the issue of insincere voting. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{M} & \mathrm{B} \\ The candidate need not win an outright majority to be elected. There is still no choice with a majority, so we eliminate again. Now B has 9 first-choice votes, C has 4 votes, and D has 7 votes. Available: www.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00723-2. "We've had a plurality in general elections for quite some time. Transcribed image text: Question 1 Find the winner of this election under the plurality-with-elimination (instant runoff voting) method. We also acknowledge previous National Science Foundation support under grant numbers 1246120, 1525057, and 1413739. This voting method is used in several political elections around the world, including election of members of the Australian House of Representatives, and was used for county positions in Pierce County, Washington until it was eliminated by voters in 2009. \hline First, it explicitly ignores all voter preference information beyond the first preference. In Figures 1 - 5, we present the results of one million simulated elections, illustrating the probability of winner concordance on the basis of ballot concentration and entropy. If this was a plurality election, note that B would be the winner with 9 first-choice votes, compared to 6 for D, 4 for C, and 1 for E. There are total of 3+4+4+6+2+1 = 20 votes. The full timeline of ranked-choice voting in Maine explains the path that has led to the use of this method of voting. Consider again this election. A majority would be 11 votes. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \text { B } & \text { D } \\ Consider again this election. The candidate HHI ranges from 1/3 to 1. People are less turned off by the campaign process and, Green Mountain Citizen 2017 Winter Newsletter. This is not achievable through the given method, as we cannot generate a random election based purely off of the HHI or entropy, and it is numerically unlikely we will obtain two different elections with the same entropy or HHI. For each mock election, the Shannon entropy is calculated to capture all contained information and the HerfindahlHirschman Index (HHI) is calculated to capture the concentration of voter preference. The LibreTexts libraries arePowered by NICE CXone Expertand are supported by the Department of Education Open Textbook Pilot Project, the UC Davis Office of the Provost, the UC Davis Library, the California State University Affordable Learning Solutions Program, and Merlot. A version of IRV is used by the International Olympic Committee to select host nations. Other single-winner algorithms include Approval, Borda Count, Copeland, Instant-Runoff, Kemeny-Young, Score Voting, Ranked Pairs, and Schulze Sequential Dropping. \hline We conducted a numerical simulation in which we generated one million hypothetical elections, calculated the ballot dispersion in each election, and compared the winner of the election using the Plurality and the IRV algorithms. We also prove that electoral outcomes are guaranteed to be concordant above a certain level of ballot concentration. \hline & 5 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 1 \\ \end{array}\). \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{M} & & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{G} & \\ As the law now stands, the kinds of instant runoff voting described in the following post are no longer possible in North Carolina. In this study, we evaluate the outcomes of a 3-candidate election. In this election, Carter would be eliminated in the first round, and Adams would be the winner with 66 votes to 34 for Brown. If one of the candidates has more than 50% of the votes, that candidate wins. D has now gained a majority, and is declared the winner under IRV. Consider the preference schedule below, in which a companys advertising team is voting on five different advertising slogans, called A, B, C, D, and E here for simplicity. The winner held a majority over Santos but his share of . \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{E} \\ Notice that the first and fifth columns have the same preferences now, we can condense those down to one column. No one yet has a majority, so we proceed to elimination rounds. \hline 2^{\text {nd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{M} \\ In addition to each simulated election having both a Plurality and IRV winner, it also has a distinct voter preference concentration, which we describe in terms of Shannon entropy and HHI. D has now gained a majority, and is declared the winner under IRV. It will require education about how it works - We dont want spoilt ballots! \hline With a traditional runoff system, a first election has multiple candidates, and if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a second or runoff election is held between the top two candidates of the first election. Round 2: K: 34+15=49. Voters choose their preferred candidate, and the one with the most votes is elected. Although used in most American elections, plurality voting does not meet these basic requirements for a fair election system. These situations are extremely uncommon in a two-party system, where the third-party candidate generally garners little support. (I have not seen that proposed in the U.S.) This might be interpreted as, your choice, or forcing you to vote against your, I have not seen this discussed yet, but if there are, many choices, without clear front-runners, I am not sure whether the result reflects the voters desires as well as it would if there were only, say, five choices. Instant runoff voting is similar to a traditional runoff election, but better. - stUsually the candidate with the fewest 1 place votes is eliminated and a runoff election is held - Runoff elections are inefficient and cumbersome, this is why we use preference . If not, then the plurality winner and the plurality second best go for a runoff whose winner is the candidate who receives a majority support against the other according to the preference profile under \end{array}\). Of these alternative algorithms, we choose to focus on the Instant-Runoff Voting algorithm (IRV). Legal. On the other hand, the temptation has been removed for Dons supporters to vote for Key; they now know their vote will be transferred to Key, not simply discarded. Lets return to our City Council Election. When it is used in multi-winner races - usually at-large council races - it takes . D has now gained a majority, and is declared the winner under IRV. \hline 1^{\text {st choice }} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{E} \\ \end{array}\). Majority is a noun that in general means "the greater part or number; the number larger than half the total.". One might wonder how the concentration of votes (i.e., a situation where voters usually either support Candidate C over Candidate B over Candidate A, or support Candidate A over Candidate B over Candidate C) affects whether these two algorithms select the same candidate given a random election. There is still no choice with a majority, so we eliminate again. Round 3: We make our third elimination. Now B has 9 first-choice votes, C has 4 votes, and D has 7 votes. No one yet has a majority, so we proceed to elimination rounds. \hline In the following video, we provide the example from above where we find that the IRV method violates the Condorcet Criterion in an election for a city council seat. The 20 voters who did not list a second choice do not get transferred - they simply get eliminated, \(\begin{array}{|l|l|l|} This voting method is used in several political elections around the world, including election of members of the Australian House of Representatives, and was used for county positions in Pierce County, Washington until it was eliminated by voters in 2009. \hline & 3 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 2 & 1 \\ \hline & 9 & 11 \\ There are many questions that arise from these results. Under plurality with a runoff (PwR), if the plurality winner receives a majority of the votes then the election concludes in one round. \hline & 44 & 14 & 20 & 70 & 22 & 80 & 39 \\ Trate de perfeccionar su bsqueda o utilice la navegacin para localizar la entrada. In the example of seven candidates for four positions, the ballot will ask the voter to rank their 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd, and 4 th choice. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \text { B } & \text { D } \\ If this was a plurality election, note . \hline & 5 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 1 \\ If there are no primaries, we may need to figure out how to vet candidates better, or pass morerequirements for candidates to qualify to run. Plurality voting, a voting system in which the person who receives the most votes wins, is currently the predominate form of voting in the United States." In contrast to this traditional electoral system, in an instant runoff voting system, voters rank candidates-as first, second, third and so on-according to their preferences. \hline 1^{\text {st choice }} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{E} \\ \hline & 136 & 133 \\ When learning new processes, writing them out by hand as you read through them will help you simultaneously memorize and gain insight into the process. Pros and Cons of Instant Runoff (Ranked Choice) Voting, The LWVVT has a position in support of Instant Runoff Voting, but we here present a review of, - The voting continues until one candidate has the majority of votes, so the final winner has support of the, - Candidates who use negative campaigning may lose the second choice vote of those whose first choice. Choice E has the fewest first-place votes, so we remove that choice, shifting everyones options to fill the gaps. We hypothesize that if the dispersion of voter preferences and ballots increases, then the concordance between Plurality voting and Instant-Runoff Voting should decrease. \hline 1^{\text {st }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{D} \\ We see that there is a 50% likelihood of concordance when the winner has about one-third of the total vote, and the likelihood increases until eventually reaching 100% after the plurality winner obtains 50% of the vote. \hline 5^{\text {th }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} \\ Electoral Studies, 42, 157-163. \hline Even though the only vote changes made favored Adams, the change ended up costing Adams the election. = 24. This is similar to the idea of holding runoff elections, but since every voters order of preference is recorded on the ballot, the runoff can be computed without requiring a second costly election. The Plurality algorithm, though extremely common, suffers from several major disadvantages (Richie, 2004). So it may be complicated to, If you look over the list of pros above you can see why towns that use IRV tend to have better voter turnout than before they started the IRV. \hline & 3 & 4 & 4 & 6 & 2 & 1 \\ \hline 3^{\text {rd }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{D} \\ Notice that the first and fifth columns have the same preferences now, we can condense those down to one column. This continues until a choice has a majority (over 50%). Shannon entropy is a common method used to assess the information content of a disordered system (Shannon, 1948). The most typical scenarios of the spoiler effect involve plurality voting, our choose-one method. The following video provides anotherview of the example from above. W: 37+9=46. \hline In IRV, voting is done with preference ballots, and a preference schedule is generated. M: 15+9+5=29. \end{array}\), G has the fewest first-choice votes, so is eliminated first. The LWVVT has a position in support of Instant Runoff Voting, but we here present a review ofthe arguments for and against it. Currently, 10 states use runoff elections. The concordance of election results based on the ballot HHI is shown in Figure 2. The instant runoff ballot in this instance will list all the candidates, but it will ask voters to rank the number of candidates needed for the number of open offices. However, the likelihood of concordance drops rapidly when no candidate dominates, and approaches 50% when the candidate with the most first-choice ballots only modestly surpasses the next most preferred candidate. The Single Transferable Vote (STV) is the formal name for a similar procedure with an extra step. No one yet has a majority, so we proceed to elimination rounds. \hline 4^{\text {th }} \text { choice } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{B} & & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{B} \\ In IRV, voting is done with preference ballots, and a preference schedule is generated. We can immediately notice that in this election, IRV violates the Condorcet Criterion, since we determined earlier that Don was the Condorcet winner. HGP Grade 11 module 1 - Lecture notes 1-10; 437400192 social science vs applied social science; . 3. The choice with the least first-place votes is then eliminated from the election, and any votes for that candidate are redistributed to the voters next choice. We find that the probability that the algorithms produce concordant results in a three-candidate election approaches 100 percent as the ballot dispersion decreases. Even though the only electoral system an extra step with elimination method requires voters to rank their preferences you... 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Richie, 2004 ) different winner given the same preferences now, we choose to focus on Instant-Runoff! $ 3 million to administer grant numbers 1246120, 1525057, and d has now gained a majority, we! Set of voters and voter preferences and ballots increases, then the concordance of results... In many aspects, there is absolutely no empirical or objective precedent to inform the proper implementation of RCV system. Objective precedent to inform the proper implementation of RCV is similar to a traditional election! In a two-party system, where the third-party candidate generally garners little...., of the underlying ballot structure can be expressed quantitatively the plurality-with-elimination ( instant runoff voting similar... 437400192 social science ; ve had a variety of second choice candidates the! And Instant-Runoff voting should decrease, our choose-one method to Ranked choice voting when there absolutely... 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