People will overbuy it in a frenzy and oversell it when fear sets in. Now they trust the mathematics, and the lack of centralized human control. For one you keep bringing up this no intrinsic value point, which is common, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. It is 110% of your total and entire GDP, and that is just your Federal Debt. However, Bitcoin is one of the least performing major cryptocurrencies, so lets not talk about fucking Bitcoin all the time just because the price of one unit is in the thousands. These are preposterous numbers. Its not about bitcoin anymore and unfortunately people still dont realize that. Im not so sure youre right about mining them though, especially if you mine with computer hardware that you already have. 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) Some of them have no earnings at all. Because I think they dont want to devalue the money too fast. how is this different than a crypto? And likewise you can scratch off the idea of any government backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized. But how do you know youre investing in Amazon, and not Pets.com? Even a significant percentage would be really stupid. Were human, so human. Dont count on there being a greater fool to take this sort of investment off your hands. Secondly, Governments are (by definition) other people, spending other peoples money on what other people tell them are other peoples problems often they screw up fiat currencies through simple incompetence they have no motivation to get it right. If the currency is highly valued, he would do well to keep hold of it! Thats not a bubble, but something else entirely. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. That money would now be long gone as uses of the underlying technology was developed and refined. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. Finally, nothing becomes a good investment just because its been going up in price lately., If you disagree with me on that point, the price of my fingernails has just increased by 70,000% and they are now $70,000 per bag. So theres a positive feedback loop here. Read Warren Buffets books. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. Andrew Kravitz The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. Very good article! But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. Thats fairly over the top. I have been hearing Bitcoin is a scam and a bubble since the time it was 200 bucks! Bitcart.io takes DASH. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. Think of it this way: Are you willing to literally gamble with multiple years of financial independence you CURRENTLY HAVE knowing there is a high likelihood you could LOSE IT ALL tomorrow? So buying tulip bulbs is not insane at a reasonable price. EvoInvestor He pulled this off by living on a small percentage of his income as a software engineer, and diligently . Missing the forest for the trees kind of thing. (see: Long Island Iced Tea Corp. becoming Long Blockchain Corp.). Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. And whenever the price bubble pops, you also have a $2700 paperweight. January 3, 2018, 5:30 pm. You guys may enjoy this article about Peter Thiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. months) so other storage mechanisms are needed. Your Mom and Pop will surely use fiat paper, but probably not you in your later life, and certainly not your kids. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am, If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. The paper dollar is anonymous! Maybe some other crypto-currency can overcome those issues and some have, but still a long way to go. youre supposed to pay taxes on gains in crypto too . Bitcoin has very little usage. Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. 0 transaction fees, infinite scalability, instant transaction times (2-10 seconds), and no mining (aka no ridiculous power consumption). January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. Bitcoins will never degrade over time, your fingernails degrade. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? I like the way he analyzes investments. And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? Scott Nicholson If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. Bigger bulb, vs smaller, vs healthy, vs rotted. My Bitcoin friends always say the same, that all the problems are being solved and everything is the best thing ever. Ive been watching this with fascination as its been a while since we have seen a hype and crash investment (because we only know which way this is going to go, right)??? Anyone whos ever had to wire money between banks will appreciate the quick transaction times and low (or zero) fees of these coins. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. And gold has at least *some* practical value you can make attractive jewelry that doesnt tarnish, use it in electronics, dental fillings. The water can be stored behind a dam for weeks, months, sometimes *years* if the dam is big enough. The people that buy into bitcoin will be hurting enough financially. I have shown from above that their is value in digital currencies. One place where coin mining could considered reasonable is during winter in a home that is already heated with electric resistance heaters. Back it up, or youre just another nutjob. People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. Even if it were safe it seems to me to be a dead end as energy consumption for the expanding use becomes incredibly high. That said, I did buy $300 of Bitcoin back in November (which is a tiny fraction of a percentage of our net worth) on the off chance it keeps escalating like crazy. Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. There is no opportunity for them here, but I do appreciate your expression of goodwill towards others and humanitarian leanings (misguided though they are in this specific instance.). Exchanges and funds get looted (or looted by the operators) all the time. Then it started falling as people cashed out. Gold is relatively inert (wont rust except for very tiny amounts of oxydation), it is relatively easy to verify its authenticity (its malleable, the good ol biting the coin to see if it dents, you can melt it to look for impurities as well as hard to fake the colour with lead based forgeries). Nothing is promised. However, cryptocurrency is what incentivizes the network to secure a blockchain, so theyre two sides of the same coin. It is happening, slowly but none the less all three of your issues should be gone within 5 years). FullTimeFinance PS. Probably not, because life is better and wealthier when you arent living a life of crime. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. Basically for doing the equivalent of what my grocery store does when I use a credit card. What value is there? January 3, 2018, 12:25 pm, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. Brent Weaver I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. Gold bullion has several thousand years of history. I was not as articulate as MMM in this post, but my underlying logic is the same. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". Rick Gardner The underlying value of stocks are tangible assets and value added production activities. All true. I could definitely sell these for more later. Im not saying Bitcoin is the saviour of USD imperialism. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. Our Banker friend goes on to explain that the first Cancer-Pill might initially see some great sales. I think I found the mistake in your reasoning. gov issued currencies = Human trust and cooperation. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? Volunteerism could get you only so far, but the data could only ever be as safe as the amount of resources it takes to break the system. Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. That is what people said 1999/2000 for the dotcom bubble. Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. Sooner or later, the fundamentals of the underlying business should and will reflect in the stock price. There you go. Some Alts are even working with the existing banking infrastructure to get them up to speed and are acknowledging the unfeasibility of anonymity (Ripple, Cardano). Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. They want the price of the asset to go up as well, so they are speculating too. > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? Look at all the nations that proposed a EUR based oil exchange, all overthrown (no, not saying those were shining examples of humanity but the prioritization is simply correlated enough). in my opinion. Before stating something, do your research of what is a Ponzi and what is a Pyramid Scheme and whether Bitcoin fits that or not? But I did put about $600 in Bitcoin over a year ago. If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. The internet has provided many, many, many great investing opportunities since 1992 most of which would have been better than a BBS in 1992. I do believe hyperbitcoinization will happen in a decade or two. We clearly see them in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. I am so happy to see this article! Even some cryptocurrencies that currently exist. Also, USD is not the only fiat in this world, although many Americans cannot see anything beyond that in their puny little shells that they develop and stay in such as yourself! A nation that cannot fairly collect taxes and redistribute wealth is a corrupt/ineffective government. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. I think getting out with $500,000 would be a great thing, but then that would be an enormous amount of money for me. 26 Replies 18313 Views March 27, 2020, 01:47:17 PM by talltexan: How do you press your kids to learn money habits? I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. I'm more of a general Life Engineer - someone who tries to optimize continue reading. Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. You are attempting to speak truth to disillusioned citizens, you will face resistance. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. Yeah, I was thinking along these lines when I realized that there is no way I would short bitcoin even if I could (too much chance of prices continuing to skyrocket until I was forced to cut my losses). Research further. Doingone transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car formore than 800 miles of driving. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. January 2, 2018, 9:13 pm. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. If you have the courage. Soon, they will be on the brink of bankruptcy and you will be able to purchase all of their stuff at a discount. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Noticed this ad on the corner of a website recently because we ALL need daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software technology! Maybe then it will go away. So you did. I dont know, why gold and not platinum or palladium? Even with the internet, its only in the last 15 years or so that we have seen companies with seemingly any sort of staying power in the industry. Even if you win some money through dumb luck, you have lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost. Spot on VIJAY. Got it. Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. January 3, 2018, 8:50 pm. I totally agree. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. January 3, 2018, 12:22 pm. LennStar Ive made more per hour than I do at my day job compared to the effort that I have put into this. Started by JenniferW. No one controls it, so no one can rewrite the data. I think that the point being missed in all of this is NOT that people want to evade taxes, but that they are being screwed backwards & forwards by the banks (& the tax evaders-in-chief that run them). In a sense one could swap bitcoin to USD and the article still stands. I think that gold is nothing special its a shiny rock. Stop Ironing Shirts Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. The Money Mustache Community . The problem with Bitcoin, (really all of the crypto currencies) is their value is not tied to anything of value. Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. Im not advocating throwing all your money into crypto (I havent see anyone say that). I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. Is it speculation, sure, but its no different that speculating on the future price of a stock, or oil, or the rental market. Pure Air and a bunch of IOUs that it will eventually default on. David Wendelken $100 per post is pretty motivating. Mining is only one arm of this whole thing and CANNOT hijack Bitcoins, and that is also why the Bitcoin community refuses to increase block size randomly like Bitcoin Cash, to give the miners any more importance than they deserve. Cest la vie. Looking back, I couldve traded a couple bucks of electricity as a college student for tens of thousands of dollars today. So a volunteer based system wouldnt be secure enough to be considered immutable for data of high value. Fiat, at least from most major industrialised nations, is less volatile for one thing. I would say that I am above it all, but I have to admit, there are days when I get caught up and am tempted to get in the game (if only to short it!). They saw value in it very early. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. Appreciate the term scarcity. I guess Petes point here is that block chain protocol has benefits but bitcoin is stupid. Because right now, well over half of all BTC mining power is located within China, and Xi Jinping could fairly easily decide that all of those miners need to work for him. Yes, it is true that bonds are *also* in a bubble at the present timeand that the bond bubble is so big that it makes stocks look relatively cheap by comparison. Cmon, only wealthy people evade taxes in amounts that would matter & theres a cottage industry made of tax lawyers doing just that for them. The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. There are sure going to be a lot of people gnashing their teeth and rending their garments when the bottom falls out of this market. Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. Mr. Money Mustache Reveals A Huge, Hidden Obstacle to Early Retirement. How many do you need? There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) That is wrong. I was one of the first subscribers to this subreddit when it was invented. Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! Its a complete rip off. November 20, 2018, 12:00 pm, so other storage is NOT needed sorry, my phone likes to randomly delete words, Tor Kristen Haugen Regular money has nothing behind it either. They know him as Mr. Money Mustache -- a gentleman who retired at the ripe age of 30 without a million-dollar salary. A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. Its closest to an MLM for me. But again, this is not investment but speculation! Tim, do you think Bitcoin cares what the Government thinks or wants? Theyre not very good experts. Worth at least an extra couple bitcoins there. theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Better to get an air-source heat pump, which multiplies your heat gain per dollar by hundreds of percent. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). The dams generate electricity whether you need it or not. Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. . LennStar Its a win-win situation.. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. Another intelligent case by highly experienced crypto business lawyer Preston Byrne. The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. Please let it go. January 3, 2018, 7:36 am. It needs to expand with the supply of goods and services in the world, otherwise we end up with deflation and hoarding. Its the last one! One question though, why not speculate with a small percentage of your net worth ie < 5%. Remember 2008? Jul 25, 2021 164 comments Who wants to sacrifice to earn financial freedom when you can just invest in Bitcoin and achieve the same in less than a year. Thats a tricky question. Amazing. Theyre stunningly shiny, surprisingly heavy duty, and generating plenty of buzz on Twitter where Im giving them away. Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. Its also dispatchable, which means the generator power output be turned on and off extremely rapidly to meet need. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. Yep, really fluid and efficient system that takes 3 days and $20 to record a single transaction, I remember about 20 years ago the starry-eyed optimists predicting the end of brick and mortar banks within a decade or two. Some guy on the internet The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. In 2018 and 2019, expect the speculation to subside as more tokenomics becomes important for valuations. The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. (Again, you also cant go to space without it, or use your computer, but we can set that aside for the moment. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. Appreciate the post MMM. If you dont have fiat money to buy the bitcoin then someone is going to have to start getting paid in btc. Mr. Frugal Toque The blockchain is only 1 part of Bitcoin. Probably the same will happen again. I would say, Probably the same would not happen again. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. Tulips. https://t.co/wfi8XTq77s" other currencies already provide faster, cheaper transactions. First petition your government to audit this fraud bank which they have not done in decades! Full faith and what? Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? Dont you find it strange, though, that my grandfather used what you call toilet paper to buy his first car, and his first house? Either way it wont end badly right? Also, I wonder the extent of whispering in their ears & kick backs they could/likely do get. It has a track record though ill give you that. Consequently, theres a very limited way in which gold can feed you (and bitcoin cant), Uberartist One thing that most people seem to miss about why gold was favoured as a form of money (scarcity and shininess) is the fact that it literally lasts. Or grid power in general. Market prices are not set by consensus. Something a step up from bitcoin t-shirts but nothing too risky. MMM eludes to the crux of the issue surrounding the long term sustainability of the current generation of cryptocurrencies when he discusses the fact they are heavily unregulated and difficult to track for governments (everywhere). A bit frothy? Just the same with crypto-currencies today. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. Every day when I go online, Ill see updates, news or discussion about Bitcoin and the craze it has created whether its on YouTube, blogs, or mainstream news. And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? I dont think so. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. January 3, 2018, 4:56 pm. This way you will be truly rich in 5 years. As the money supply increases, purchasing power is concentrated with the money creators at the expense of others holding the currency. China is also a leader in renewables space. > There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. 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